The DECIDE Model

The DECIDE model is a six-step decision-making framework designed to help pilots work through complex, time-sensitive situations systematically. Originally developed for aviation by the FAA, DECIDE provides a structured alternative to gut-feel decision-making—which, under stress, is unreliable.

The acronym stands for:

• D — Detect that a change has occurred

• E — Estimate the need to react

• C — Choose a desirable outcome

• I — Identify actions to achieve that outcome

• D — Do the necessary action

• E — Evaluate the effect of the action

DECIDE is particularly valuable during in-flight situations where conditions are evolving and the pilot must decide whether—and how—to change the plan.

The first step is recognizing that something has changed. This sounds simple, but detection failures are among the most common factors in ADM-related accidents. Changes may be subtle—gradually decreasing visibility, slowly rising fuel burn, a headwind that’s slightly stronger than forecast.

Effective detection requires active monitoring, not passive observation. Pilots who establish mental “triggers”—such as “if visibility drops below 5 miles, I will reassess”—are far more likely to detect changes early. The Scenario Lab teaches detection by embedding gradual, realistic changes into scenario conditions.

Once a change is detected, the pilot must estimate its significance. Is this change urgent? How much time do I have before it becomes critical? What are the consequences of inaction?

Estimation requires context. A headwind increase of 5 knots may be insignificant with 3 hours of fuel but critical with 45 minutes remaining. The same cloud deck that’s no concern at 10,000 feet may be a serious hazard at 3,000 feet over mountainous terrain.

A common estimation error is underestimating the rate of change. Pilots tend to assume that conditions will hold steady or improve, when the trend may actually be accelerating. This is directly related to plan continuation bias—the tendency to continue with the original plan despite mounting evidence that it’s no longer viable.

This step asks the pilot to define what success looks like before evaluating options. Rather than jumping directly to “What should I do?”, DECIDE asks “What outcome do I want?”

Examples of desirable outcomes:

• Land at an airport with VFR conditions and adequate runway

• Arrive at destination with at least 1 hour of fuel reserve

• Avoid the convective area while maintaining visual conditions

• Reduce workload to a manageable level

Defining the desired outcome first prevents the pilot from fixating on a single option and helps evaluate alternatives against a clear standard. If the desired outcome is “land safely in VFR conditions,” then any airport meeting that criterion becomes an acceptable option—not just the original destination.

With the desired outcome defined, the pilot identifies specific actions that could achieve it. This is where training, experience, and aeronautical knowledge come together.

Possible actions might include:

• Divert to the nearest suitable airport

• Turn back to the departure airport

• Contact ATC for updated weather or vectors

• Request Flight Following

• Climb or descend to a more favorable altitude

• Slow down to conserve fuel

• Declare an emergency

Critically, this step should consider gathering more information as a valid action. The FAA’s Risk Management Handbook notes that obtaining additional information—such as updated weather, pilot reports, or ATC advisories—is often the most appropriate first action, as long as the time spent does not allow the situation to deteriorate further.

Execute the chosen action. This step emphasizes that analysis without action is dangerous—“analysis paralysis” is a real risk in high-workload situations. Once you’ve identified the best course of action, act on it.

Timeliness matters. One of the key principles of ADM is that early decisions preserve options. A diversion made 30 minutes early typically offers more choices, more fuel, and less risk than the same diversion made 30 minutes late. The Scenario Lab reinforces this by showing how delayed decisions narrow your alternatives.

The final step—and the one most often skipped—is evaluation. After taking action, the pilot must assess whether the action produced the desired outcome. If conditions continue to deteriorate despite the action, the cycle restarts.

This step is what makes DECIDE a cycle rather than a linear process. Real-world situations rarely resolve with a single decision. Weather may continue to change, fuel continues to burn, and new information may emerge. Effective pilots are continuously running through the DECIDE cycle throughout the flight.

The Scenario Lab’s debrief system maps your decisions to the DECIDE framework at the end of each scenario, helping you see where you detected changes effectively, where your estimation was accurate, and where the cycle broke down.